Apr 23

Brand isn’t everything: The critical approach for spotting Bordeaux “underdogs”

Below is a chart that plots the price per 12 bottle case of 2009 Bordeaux in USD against each wines ‘score’ out of 100 from leading wine critic James Suckling. A score of 100 indicates a ‘perfect wine’.

Bordeaux Underdogs?

The chart clearly shows the big five super-brands and the esteemed Cheval Blanc overshadowing Pavie & its associated Pavie Decesse in terms of price per case. The latter two St Emilion contenders critically outpoint Mouton Rothschild’s 2009 offering, and yet they are available for less than half the price of their first growth competitor.

The temptation is to infer that this data reveals diminished relevance of a wine’s critical reception to the market value of that wine. What the chart truly reveals is, given the dominance of Bordeaux over the Liv-Ex 100, how easily critical success stories can get overshadowed by the “premiers cru” and their right-bank superstar counterparts.

Although the wine market is highly brand oriented at the very top end, it is still driven by purists at its core. It is important to remember that these fine wines will all eventually be consumed and the critics’ choices will be first in line.  Jancis Robinson has expressed her fondness for several “super seconds” due to their investment potential.

What Chateau Pavie loses in name recognition, it gains in critical acclaim. While “underdog” may be overstating the case for wine of such a high standard, the disparity between the “perfect” wines and “next-to-perfect” wines is glaring in terms of pricing so opportunities exist for the shrewd investor.

This data certainly illustrates how the barrier to entry for some the best of Bordeaux is not necessarily as high as is often perceived.

Aug 30

Wine and Billionaires – Fine Wine Solutions

Liv-ex, the London based fine wine trading exchange platform, have released some interesting statistics, plotting the number of billionaires known to exist with their index of the top performing 100 fine wines.

Fine Wine Solutions

This graph highlights a very interesting aspect to the fine wine market which is that of the particular demographics involved. Wine is always somewhat insulated from general downturns in other financial markets; “One of the attractions of fine wine as an asset is its non-correlation with mainstream financial markets” The Financial Times, June 2009. This is partly thanks to the fact that fine wine purchasing has long been the playground of the wealthy elite and those who do not suffer in quite the same way during recession or depression. This is also good news for the average man on the street who is looking to dabble in this niche as it steadily becomes more mainstream. More and more people are finding their fine wine solutions for investment.


Apr 26

Fine Wine Investments, London, UK

UK investors have been searching for safe havens recently, avoiding bonds, equities and traditional bank-based investments.  Non-conventional assets, such as fine wines, continued to perform well in the last month.

The Liv-ex 100 fine wine index rose by 0.4% in March from February, representing a rise since the start of 2011 of 6.8%, and over five years, up by 181.8%, latest figures show. The Liv-ex 50 index has risen by 278.5% over five years.

By contrast, the UK FTSE 100 fell by -0.9% in March and has fallen by 0.4% since 2006.

Hedge fund returns have remained mostly static so far this year, according to the asset management business of Société Générale; Lyxor.  The Lyor Hedge Fund Index, fell 0.34%t in March and has managed a 0.76% gain since January.

The UK is leading the world in wine investment and this trend is set to continue in these times of financial uncertainty.

Feb 17

Record month for Wine Investment

Wine Investment had a record breaking month with the Liv-Ex 100 rising by 2.9% and the Claret Chip by 3.4%.

The value of the index as of the 31st of January 2011 was 346.14, up 2.93% on the previous month. The index has increased by 40.8% year on year.

Wine Investment

Wine Investment

The Liv-Ex 100 consists of the 100 most sought after wines mostly from the Bordeaux region but also featuring wines from Burgundy, the Rhone, Champagne and Italy.  Bordeaux dominating the index is clearly a reflection of its strength in the overall market.  The index is calculated using Liv-ex Mid Prices and is then weighted to account for original production levels and increasing scarcity as the wine ages.   As such, the index is designed to give each wine a weighting that corresponds with its impact on the overall market.

Wine Investment

Wine Investment

The Claret Chip is comprised of top-rated Bordeaux Left Bank First Growth wines only.  All wines must have in-bottle score of 95 or above from Robert Parker.  All wines must be physically available ie no “en primeur” and be no more than 15 years old (calculated from date of vintage).

Jan 25

Wine beats oil as an investment

Crude oil sells for less than 30 pence for the equivalent volume of a bottle of a 1982 vintage Château Pétrus priced over £3000.  This is obviously an extreme example but oil and fine wine prices have a lot in common when measured against eachother with a correlation of around 90% between 1998 and 2010.

Wine Market vs Oil MarketSerhan Cevik and Tahsin Saadi Sedik, economists at the IMF, researched the effects of emerging markets on both wine and oil prices (see graph above).  The fast growth of emerging markets clearly has a large impact on the wine market as it does on oil prices and other commodities.  The fine wine market is also influenced heavily by the fact that there is limited supply due to the appellation d’origine contrôlée (AOC).  This is the French system established in 1855 to ensure the quality and geographical authenticity of Bordeaux wine is sustained and this is rigidly adhered to even now.  This will not change but what is changing in modern times is the rate of consumption of fine wines in emerging economies such as India and particularly China.  These wines are often bought purely for investment but the Chinese market has shown a rapidly increased rate of consumption in recent years and this is set to continue.

These factors support the forecasts for solid returns for fine wine investment in 2011.

Jan 24

Wine beats gold for investment returns

The price of gold has quadrupled in the last decade.  The value of a 2000 vintage Lafite is now worth nine times its original value and a 1982 vintage is worth over ten times.  Lafite is already worth more than its weight than silver!  If progression continues on course it will be worth more than its weight in gold by the end of this decade.  There is no reason why this progression will not continue with an already limited supply being further reduced by the astonishing rate that the Chinese are consuming fine wines.

As wine is beating gold consistently, it almost goes without saying that the wine wine market is outshining the stock market.  It is however worth noting the extent to which this is the case.  As the world has gone through the worst financial crisis in six decades, the Liv-ex 100 Fine Wine Index has tripled in five years.  Lafite has beaten the index as a whole by 100%.  Wine performace is clearly not limited merely to Lafite.  There are many other strong contenders to the throne of this “alfa asset”.

Jan 20

Fine Wine proved to be a Fine Investment in 2010

Fine wine investment proved to be the best investment for 2010 — a 32% return for investors outperformed all other assets.  In fact, despite only 1% growth in December, wine outperformed all other asset classes for the second year in a row.  The returns of 32% are substantially higher than the 22% rise in gold.  The average annual return on fine wine has been 15%  over the last fifteen years.

Bordeaux Index predicted 2011 will be another strong year for the category after a frantic  first full day of trading yesterday.  Bordeaux Index founder and managing director Gary Boom:   “With cyclical bulls viewing the surge in the US 10-year Treasury Note as a sign that growth could be about to take off and yet more talk of further monetary stimulus in the spring, analysts are predicting both commodities and equities to show well in 2011.”

“With another first class en primeur vintage waiting in the wings, buyers are already acquiring positions in the most desirable back vintages in advance of the new release,” said Boom.